Gartner: Künstliche Intelligenz wird bis 2020 mehr Jobs schaffen, als dadurch wegfallen

Nach der Ansicht des IT-Research und Beratungsunternehmens Gartner wird 2020 ein entscheidendes Jahr hinsichtlich der Beschäftigungsdynamik im Bereich Künstliche Intelligenz, da sie sich bis dahin positiv auf den Arbeitsmarkt auswirken wird. Die Arbeitsplätze, die von Künstlicher Intelligenz direkt beeinflusst werden, variieren dabei von Branche zu Branche: Bis zum Jahr 2019 werden die Gesundheitsbranche, der öffentliche Sektor und der Bildungssektor die Nachfrage nach Arbeitskräften kontinuierlich steigern, während die Produktions- und Fertigungsindustrie am Stärksten negativ betroffen sein wird.

Vom Jahr 2020 wird der Saldo der Arbeitsplatzentwicklung im Bereich Künstlicher Intelligenz dann positiv: Bis zum Jahr 2025 werden dadurch 2 Millionen neue Arbeitsplätze geschaffen werden.

„Viele bedeutende Innovationen in der Vergangenheit waren mit einer Übergangsphase von vorübergehenden Arbeitsplatzverlusten verbunden. Darauf folgte eine Zeit der Erholung und dann die Transformation der Geschäftsprozesse. Auch Künstliche Intelligenz wird dieser Entwicklung folgen,“ wire Svetlana Sicular, Research Vice President bei Gartner, in einer Mitteilung des Unternehmens zitiert. „Künstliche Intelligenz wird die Produktivität vieler Arbeitsplätze verbessern. Auf der einen Seite werden Millionen von mittleren und niedrigeren Positionen wegfallen, aber auf der anderen Seite werden auch Millionen neuer Positionen geschaffen. Diese reichen von hochqualifizierten Mitarbeitern im Managementbereich bis hin zu geringer qualifizierten Mitarbeitern und sogar Einsteigern,“ so Sicular weiter.

Das aktuelle Zahlenmaterial von Gartner finden Sie hier:

Gartner Survey Shows 42 Per Cent of CEOs Have Begun Digital Business Transformation

An unsettled global political environment has not shifted CEOs‘ focus on profits and growth in 2017. Growth is the No. 1 business priority for 58 per cent of CEOs, according to a recent survey of 388 CEOs by Gartner, Inc. This is up from 42 per cent in 2016.

Product improvement and technology are the biggest-rising priorities for CEOs in 2017 (see Figure 1). „IT-related priorities, cited by 31 per cent of CEOs, have never been this high in the history of the CEO survey,“ said Mark Raskino, vice president and Gartner Fellow. „Almost twice as many CEOs are intent on building up in-house technology and digital capabilities as those plan on outsourcing it (57 per cent and 29 per cent, respectively). We refer to this trend as the reinternalisation of IT — bringing information technology capability back toward the core of the enterprise because of its renewed importance to competitive advantage. This is the building up of new-era technology skills and capabilities.“

CEO Understanding of Digital Business Is Improving

While the idea of shifting toward digital business was speculative for most CEOs a few years ago, it has become a reality for many in 2017.

Forty-seven per cent of CEOs are being challenged by the board of directors to make progress in digital business, and 56 per cent said that their digital improvements have already improved profits. „CEO understanding of the benefits of a digital business strategy is improving,“ said Mr Raskino. „They are able to describe it more specifically. Although a significant number of CEOs still mention e-commerce or digital marketing, more of them align it to advanced business ideas, such as digital product and service innovation, the Internet of Things, or digital platforms and ecosystems.“ „Gartner Survey Shows 42 Per Cent of CEOs Have Begun Digital Business Transformation“ weiterlesen

Gartner Says by 2020, At Least 30 Per Cent of Industrie 4.0 Projects Will Source Their Algorithms From Leading Algorithm Marketplaces

Industrie 4.0 has been underway for more than five years, and while many businesses have begun some promising Industrie 4.0 projects, key challenges remain that are making algorithms the heartbeat of these projects, according to Gartner, Inc. By 2020, Gartner predicts that at least 30 per cent of Industrie 4.0 projects will source their algorithms from leading algorithm marketplaces — a significant rise from less than 5 per cent in 2016.

„Industrie 4.0 projects are facing two significant challenges,“ said Thomas Oestreich, managing vice president at Gartner. „First — in the connected world of cyber-physical systems — they need to deal with the sheer volume, real-time velocity and diversity of data. Second, in order to drive new value and differentiating innovations, new algorithms need to be developed. This is making algorithms the pulse of Industrie 4.0 initiatives.“

Mr Oestreich added that developing new algorithms requires skills and competencies that most companies do not have yet. To increase time to market and speed up the development process, some organizations employ service providers and combine this with using algorithm marketplaces.

Reusable Algorithms Can Reduce Development Time

Analytics vendors have started creating marketplaces for software components, such as analytical algorithms, to bring greater flexibility and choice to end users. These marketplaces will bring the benefits of the app economy to software development. They will radically lower software distribution costs and improve access to thousands — if not millions — of available algorithms. „Gartner Says by 2020, At Least 30 Per Cent of Industrie 4.0 Projects Will Source Their Algorithms From Leading Algorithm Marketplaces“ weiterlesen

Connected Home Solutions Adoption Remains Limited to Early Adopters

Adoption of newer connected home solutions is still at the early adopter phase, according to a recent survey by Gartner, Inc. The survey, of nearly 10,000 online respondents in the US, the UK and Australia during the second half of 2016, found that only about 10 per cent of households currently have connected home solutions.

Connected home solutions consist of a set of devices and services that are connected to each other and to the internet and can automatically respond to preset rules, be remotely accessed and managed by mobile apps or a browser, and send alerts or messages to the user(s). „Although households in the developed world are beginning to embrace connected home solutions, providers must push beyond early adopter use,“ said Amanda Sabia, principal research analyst at Gartner. „If they are to successfully widen the appeal of the connected home, providers will need to identify what will really motivates current users to inspire additional purchases.“

The survey found that home security alarm systems, the more established of connected home solutions, have nearly double the adoption rates (18 per cent) of newer connected home solutions such as home monitoring (11 per cent), home automation or energy management (9 per cent), and health and wellness management (11 per cent). Overall adoption rates were 5 to 6 per cent greater in the US, where they were first marketed. However, excluding home security alarm services for which a monthly fee is generally paid, solution providers may find monetising connected services challenging as the survey revealed that less than half of households currently pay for subscription-based home monitoring and automation/energy management solutions. „Connected Home Solutions Adoption Remains Limited to Early Adopters“ weiterlesen

Gartner Says By 2020, More Than Half of Major New Business Processes and Systems Will Incorporate Some Element of the Internet of Things

More than half of major new business processes and systems will incorporate some element of the Internet of Things (IoT) by 2020, according to Gartner, Inc. The impact of the IoT on consumers‘ lives and corporate business models is rapidly increasing as the cost of „instrumenting“ physical things with sensors and connecting them to other things — devices, systems and people — continues to drop.

„Uses of the IoT that were previously impractical will increasingly become practical,“ said W. Roy Schulte, vice president and distinguished analyst at Gartner. „The IoT is relevant in virtually every industry, although not in every application. There will be no purely IoT applications. Rather, there will be many applications that leverage the IoT in some small or large aspect of their work. As a result, business analysts and developers of information-centric processes need to have the expertise and the tools to implement IoT aspects that play a role in their systems.“

Gartner has made four more predictions for the IoT:

Through 2018, 75 per cent of IoT projects will take up to twice as long as planned.
Gartner expects three out of four IoT projects to face schedule extensions of up to 100 per cent with the consequent cost overruns. The more ambitious and complicated the project, the greater the schedule overruns. For some projects, compromises will be made to keep them on-schedule, leading to significant weaknesses in performance, security or integration into existing processes. In the mid-to-long term, these compromises will require that the IoT project be refactored and perhaps even recalled and redeployed.

„Product-centred organisations will be the worst affected,“ said Alfonso Velosa, research vice president at Gartner. „They will seek to launch smarter, connected products, although this will often be a reactive, tactical approach that seeks to address their competition’s IoT product. However, even for organisations conducting internally centred projects that may focus on cost reductions, there will be people issues. Most of these issues will centre on the normal introduction of a new technology model. It will be complicated by emerging business models that will require process and cultural change. Addressing both of these will lead to projects going over schedule.“

By 2020, a black market exceeding $5 billion will exist to sell fake sensor and video data for enabling criminal activity and protecting personal privacy. The nature of IoT solutions, how they are deployed, and the types of data they generate and consume are giving rise to new security and privacy implications that organisations must begin to address. This is a rapidly escalating risk to the organisation, bringing complexity unfamiliar to most IT and business leaders.

„The IoT has enormous potential to collect continuous data about our environment,“ said Ted Friedman, vice president and distinguished analyst at Gartner. „The integrity of this data will be important in making personal and business decisions, from medical diagnoses to environmental protection, from commands to modify actions of machinery to identification and authorisation of physical access. A black market for fake or corrupted sensor and video data will mean that data can be compromised or substituted with inaccurate or deliberately manipulated data. This scenario will spur the growth of privacy products and services, resulting in an extensive public discussion regarding the future of privacy, the means to protect individual privacy, and the role of technology and government in privacy protection.“

By 2020, addressing compromises in IoT security will have increased security costs to 20 per cent of annual security budgets, from less than 1 per cent in 2015. As use of IoT devices grows, however, the unique requirements of IoT architecture, design and implementation over multiple industry segments and scenarios will also grow. As a result, Gartner said that the average security budget for IT, operational technology and IoT security requirements will respond to the growth of IoT devices across all business segments and scenarios, rising from less than 1 per cent of annual security budgets in 2015 to 20 per cent in 2020.

„Major cybersecurity vendors and service providers are already delivering roadmaps and architecture of IoT security, in anticipation of market opportunity,“ said Earl Perkins, research vice president at Gartner. „Small startups delivering niche IoT security in areas such as network segmentation, device-to-device authentication and simple data encryption are offering first-generation products and services, including cloud-based solutions where applicable. Large security vendors have already begun acquiring some of these IoT startups to support their early roadmaps and fill niches in their portfolios.“

More detailed analysis is available in the report „Predicts 2016: Unexpected Implications Arising From the Internet of Things.“ This research note is part of Gartner’s Special Report „Predicts 2016: Algorithms Take Digital Business to the Next Level“ a compilation of 85 reports focused on the top predictions and actions that will enable organisations to shape their digital future.